30 Years Without an MLB Player Strike Could End Over Salary Disputes

By Kabir Syali

The MLB has experienced a period of peace between players and owners marred only by the 2021-22 owner lockout, but that peace may end when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the MLBPA and MLB owners expires on December 1st, 2026. The MLB has not experienced a player strike since the strike affecting 1994 postseason and the beginning of the 1995 season, which lasted a staggering 232 days. Both the MLB and MLBPA are prepared to begin negotiations, yet it is unclear if they will settle their differences before the clock runs out next December.

What is causing this dispute you might ask? Salary expectations. Unlike other American sports leagues, the MLB does not have a salary cap or a salary floor, allowing team owners to spend as little or as much as they want on payroll- their spending capacity is directly related to how wealthy their ownership group is. This format has two key issues, one is that it makes it hard for smaller teams to compete as they cannot afford star players unlike the big names in baseball like the Dodgers, Yankees and Tigers whose ownership groups have more resources. The second issue is that owners are also not required to pay their players a minimum salary leading to a huge variation in player salaries. As a result, the players want a salary floor so their pay reflects the league's growth and team performance which isn’t considered with their current minimum base salary. Owners, on the other hand, want to instate a salary cap in order to limit player salaries as an expense for their team.

The MLBPA deputy executive director, Bruce Meyer, is leading negotiations for players, while MLB deputy commissioner, Dan Halem, is representing the league side. Both parties involved met in November 2025 to start negotiations with little progress; they are expected to resume formal negotiations during spring training for the 2026 season. The issue is both sides have  polar opposite goals, meaning these negotiations might continue until the CBA expires, at which point, the MLB will experience an owner-enforced lockout affecting the 2027 season.

The owners have more bargaining power at the start of a season as players will not have been paid yet; however, the players union will have greater bargaining power at the end of the regular season in 2026. The question is will the players strike first before owners can stop them? Players receive the majority of their salary by the end of the regular season, after which they can afford to stage a strike. In fact, players might benefit from going on strike as a federal investigation into the MLBPA leadership for misappropriation of funds and abuse of power could harm the union's bargaining power if the government decides to take action. Should the players choose to strike first, it would be the first player strike in over 30 years, impacting both the 2026 postseason and World Series.

Salary disputes are nothing new to the MLB. The current luxury tax, now known as the collective balances tax, did penalize teams for exceeding a payroll threshold, promoting some semblance of competitive balance. In fact, the MLB has attempted to address the issue in 2023 with the creation of the Economic Reform Committee. This group aimed to address a variety of issues, such as the shutdown of the Regional Sports Network, declining attendance, and the expiring CBA. This committee has almost 3 years of work under their belt, but it doesn’t seem like there has been any progress made on addressing the salary disputes before the CBA expires.

With so many factors, we can’t be certain of what will happen. Will the pressure cause one side to give into negotiations? Can players afford a strike after a federal investigation? Will history repeat itself in the form of another lockout or the return of a player strike? We can only wait and see which leadership chooses to act first. For now, we know that some change is coming to the MLB. Whether it will benefit players or owners is yet to be uncovered. However, given the standstill of progress on the issue, it is likely we will see a work-stoppage of some kind as parties run out of time to negotiate. The question is, which negotiating party will cause the stoppage this time?